So now that the Super Bowl XLV betting odds have been out for about a week, it’s time to see if we can keep this NFL betting hot streak alive. So far my NFL free picks for the postseason are 9-3; it’s definitely been a profitable run.
Online betting giant Bodog.com opened the Steelers-Packers point spread at Green Bay minus three points, which is exactly where it sits today. Meanwhile, their odds-makers opened the Steelers-Packers Total at 46 points, but they have since adjusted to 45.
We’ll get to some Super Bowl prop picks and the Steelers/Packers point spread later in the week, but for now, let’s analyze the Super Bowl XLV over-under, and see if we can come up with a winner.
The Packers and the Steelers have the two best defenses in the entire NFL. Led by James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh’s defense was the toughest unit to score against this season, yielding just 14.5 points per game.
With Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson leading the way, Green Bay wasn’t far behind, giving up just 15 points per game; good enough for second best in the NFL.
Add those numbers up, and the two teams' opponents combined to average just 29.5 points per game this season—15.5 points fewer than the 2011 Super Bowl Total. No wonder these two combined to cover the under in 56.8 percent of their games this year.
On the other side of the ball, both the Steelers and Packers ranked in the top half of the league in scoring this season. The Packers ranked 10th (24.3), while the boys in black and gold ranked 12th (23.4).
I think there is public perception that the Packers' offense was more proficient this season, but that isn’t the case. The simple fact is Green Bay is not a consistent offensive juggernaut, especially on the road.
This season in front of the home crowd Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers' offense scored 30.5 points per game. However, away from Lambeau, that number plummeted to 21.3. Moreover, they averaged just 17 points in their three indoor games this season. As a matter of fact, the "under" is 5-2 in the Packers' last seven games on field turf—a little surprising.
As far as football betting odds are concerned, public perception comes into play on the Super Bowl more so than other games. Why is that? Because there are so many casual bettors coming in to place their first bet of the season every Super Bowl Sunday.
Because of this, the odds-makers know the casual bettors will just pile onto the public trend of betting blindly on the "over." Need proof?
The "under" covered in five of the last six Super Bowls. Even more impressive, the "under" was covered by an average of 10.3 points in those five games. Need any more proof that the Super Bowl over/under is usually an inflated number?
Oddsauthority.com Super Bowl XLV free pick
Well, it isn’t hard to see where I’m going with this.
When the 2011 Super Bowl Total opened at 46 points, I was shocked and jumped on it immediately. It has since been adjusted down to anywhere between 44 and 45 points, depending on the book.
Even though the public is on the "over," the number is going the opposite way. Tells you all you need to know, and that is the sharp money is on the "under."
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