Sunday, December 5, 2010

Sizing up Green Bay Packers' chances at securing playoff bye, Super Bowl run



Have questions or comments about the Packers? Send them to Green Bay Press-Gazette sports editor Mike Vandermause at mvandermause@greenbaypressgazette.com and he will provide responses in Packers Preview.

Q: If the Packers win the rest of their home games, do they clinch the division and get a first-round bye due to the tiebreaker over Philly? If so, are they bound for the Super Bowl?

Vandermause: If the Packers win four of their final five games, and lose at New England, they stand a decent chance of not only capturing the NFC North title but also earning a first-round bye.

If the Packers beat the Bears in the regular-season finale and the two teams are tied, the tiebreaker sequence would be: record in division, record against common opponents, record against NFC teams, strength of victory, and strength of schedule. If the tiebreaker slides to strength of victory — which isn’t out of the question — the Packers would hold the edge.

The Packers would need the Eagles to lose one of their final four games and finish 11-5. Then the Packers would receive the tiebreaker nod over the Eagles based on their season-opening win in Philadelphia. So if the Packers take care of their own business, they should be in good playoff position. As for the Super Bowl, under you scenario, the Packers would likely have to beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome in the NFC title game.

Q: What do you think of the Packers’ throwback uniforms?

Vandermause: I can’t lie. I don’t like them. I’ve never been a big fan of throwback uniforms. It makes the players look like they’re dressed up in Halloween costumes. It strikes me as just another way for the NFL to make a buck by attempting to sell unique-looking jerseys.

My question is, who would buy such ugly apparel? At least we only have to put up with these hideous fashion statements once every decade or so.

Q: Those refs in the Packers-Falcons game shouldn’t be allowed to spot a football in a peewee game. What is the punishment for horrible reffing?

Vandermause: NFL officials are graded every week. The best ones get to work playoff games. The worst ones sit home during the playoffs and/or don’t get rehired.

Obviously they missed the Tony Gonzalez drop on Sunday, but I can hardly blame them for that. On the original replay angle, it looked like a catch. Only a better angle from the other side showed Gonzalez dropping the ball on a crucial fourth-down play.

Of all the things the Packers can blame for losing, the officials would be at or near the bottom of the list.

Q: Which QB is more respected by their team, Jay Cutler or Aaron Rodgers? Long term 10 years down the road, which QB has the better career?

Vandermause: Rodgers is more accurate, makes fewer mistakes, is a better runner and is the unquestioned leader of the Packers’ offense. I don’t think it’s even close in terms of who is the better quarterback, short term or long term.

Q: I believe the Packers will be a playoff-caliber team for years to come. Who do you think is their main competition over the next five years in the NFC?

Vandermause: With Matt Ryan at the helm, the Falcons could be good for years to come. I could see the Packers-Falcons rivalry rising to the current level of Patriots-Colts. Assuming Michael Vick stays in Philadelphia, the Andy Reid-led Eagles will probably give the Packers strong competition as well. A dark-horse team might be the Buccaneers, who appear young and hungry.

Q: Why is our play-calling so predictable? Sitting at home, most informed fans can predict the next plays.

Vandermause: I disagree with your premise that informed fans know what’s coming. Fans and media have the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, which is why I seldom get caught in the trap of criticizing play-calling. If a play works, then the play-calling is great. If the play flops, it’s horrible play-calling. I don’t buy it. There are times when the perfect play is called, but because one player messed up it didn’t work. Mike McCarthy, the Packers’ play-caller, studies film and tendencies and opponents early in the morning and late at night. He knows better than anyone what has the best chance to work. Does that mean he’s above criticism for his play-calling? Of course not. But it’s too easy to rip the play-caller when several other factors might be at work on any given play.

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