Super Bowl 2012 Predictions

We are just about 48 hours away from Super Bowl Sunday, ladies and gentlemen. After taking some time to consider everything going on with the game to this point, it has come time for us to put the official SB Nation Minnesota prediction out there on the table for everyone to see.
As you no doubt saw earlier on the site here, the New England Patriots sit as a three-point favorite over the New York Football Giants. It has been a while since either of these teams lost a football game, so there really isn't any "momentum" advantage on either side. The Giants haven't lost since December 18, when they fell to the Washington Redskins. Since then, they've won five straight. The Patriots' streak is longer still. . .the last time Bill Belichick's team lost was November 6. In that game, they fell at home, 24-20, to. . .the New York Giants.
Many people are going to be focused on the quarterbacks in this match-up, and with good reason. Both of them put up ridiculous numbers during the 2011 NFL season, with Tom Brady throwing for over 5,000 yards and Eli Manning proving that, indeed, you can't spell "elite" without "Eli." They both have a multitude of weapons to throw to as well. The Giants' receiving trio of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham has created nightmares for defenses all season long. On the New England side, the most famous ankle in Indianapolis this week belongs to tight end Ron Gronkowski, who will play on Sunday (like he's going to sit out the Super Bowl), but might not be full speed. With the Patriots' offense, however, you never know who Brady's favorite target is going to be. It might be Gronkowski. . .it might be Aaron Hernandez. . .it might be Wes Welker. . .it might be Deion Branch. . .it might even be Danny Woodhead.
Where this game will be won or lost, however, is on the defensive side of the ball. We all know about the Giants' pass rush, led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora. What's lost in this is that, in their playoff run, the Giants' secondary has been outstanding as well, particularly Corey Webster, who made Michael Crabtree a complete non-factor in the NFC Championship Game. The Patriots' defense was historically bad during the regular season, allowing the second-most most passing yards of any team in NFL history. (The only team worse was this year's Green Bay Packers, who were dispatched by the Giants earlier this post-season.) However, in the post-season, the defense has been markedly better, allowing nearly 100 fewer yards/game than their regular season pace. Vince Wilfork has looked like a man on a mission these past couple of weeks, and the match-up between him and the Giants' interior linemen will be one of the more intriguing ones of the evening. If the Giants can keep Wilfork and company away from Eli Manning, it could be a tough night for the Patriots secondary.
There's really no advantage on the coaching front, either. Yes, Bill Belichick is a genius and all of that, but Tom Coughlin has proven that he's one heck of a coach, too. Considering that the man seems to find himself on the proverbial "hot seat" about half a dozen times every year. . .this season included, prior to the Giants' late-season run. . .all the guy does is get his players motivated, and all they do is win for him. It's going to be a real chess match between these two sideline titans.
So, who do I feel is going to win this one?
The Patriots are the favorites for a reason. While Eli Manning has been great this season, the guy on the other sideline is still Tom Brady. He didn't have his greatest afternoon in the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens, and he knows that. It's rare for Brady to have two bad games in a row, and the combination of his performance two weeks ago, his team's loss to the Giants in Week 9, and the loss in Super Bowl XLII. . .you didn't think I was going to go the whole article without mentioning that, did you. . .will lead to a supremely motivated Brady on Sunday night in Indy.
Both teams will have their moments in this one on both sides of the ball, and we could be in for a classic contest. But when the confetti is released, I see Bill Belichick handing the Lombardi Trophy to Robert Kraft, and Tom Brady cementing his legacy as one of the NFL's all-time great quarterbacks.
The Pick: New England Patriots 31, New York Giants 27

Super Bowl 2012: Giants, Pats on the defensive

At first glance, this Super Bowl is a matchup of dreadful defenses. The New York Giants ranked 27th among the 32 NFL teams in total defense during the regular season. The New England Patriots ranked next-to-last.
But both teams played far better defense during the playoffs to reach this game, and the offenses might not have it quite so easy in Sunday’s Super Bowl.
“I don’t think those numbers are accurate representations of these teams,” said Brian Billick, the former coach of the Baltimore Ravens. “Now, these are not upper-echelon defenses, although with a healthy New York Giants team . . . I think we would have seen maybe a top-10 defense. I don’t know that New England is in that category.”
The Patriots, after surrendering 411.1 yards and 21.4 points per game during the regular season, reduced that to 325 yards and 15 points per game during the AFC playoffs. The Giants, after yielding 376.4 yards and 25 points per game during the regular season, tightened things up on defense and allowed 321 yards and 13 points per game during the NFC playoffs.
“I think right now we’re clicking on the offensive side [and] defensive side as well as on special teams,” Giants cornerback Aaron Ross said. “Being a defensive player, early in the year, we weren’t on the same page. We had a few mental mistakes that cost us games. Now in the last month and a half, we’ve been on a hot streak and Coach [Tom] Coughlin has been putting in a great game plan for us and we’ve been executing plays.”
Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said he sensed all along that his defense would improve its play as the season progressed.
“They never stopped listening,” Fewell said of his players. “I knew we weren’t in trouble. They wanted to right it. They wanted to get it right. We had a lot of guys playing that really didn’t have the experience that they needed and didn’t really understand the concepts we were trying to teach and what we were trying to get across with our game plans. But they never shut us out and they kept believing in what we were trying to get done.”
Billick said he thinks the Patriots benefited from playing two opponents without high-powered offenses — the Denver Broncos and the Ravens — during the playoffs. The Broncos ranked 23rd in the NFL in total offense during the regular season and the Ravens were 15th.
“I think New York got healthy and that was a big part of it, and became battle-tested,” Billick said. “That schedule they had in the second half, they’ve been on a playoff win-or-go-home mentality for a while now. Now, you worry about it emotionally wearing your team out. But on the flip side, they’ve been battle-tested. New England, on the other hand, I don’t know that they have. They’ve had an easier course to it. We’ll see if that makes a difference when it comes to this championship game.”
Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo said he has told his teammates that the defensive results from the regular season, and even those from the playoffs, no longer have any relevance.
“It’s a one-game season,” Mayo said. “Nothing else matters. None of the stats from the regular season, none of the stats from the postseason, matter. It’s all about Sunday and that’s our focus.”
It was a record-setting season for NFL quarterbacks, and the Patriots’ Tom Brady and the Giants’ Eli Manning were among the passers putting up dazzling numbers.
The Patriots, with Brady, were one of the three teams in the NFL playoff field with a top-tier offense during the regular season and a low-ranked defense. The Patriots are the only one of those teams left standing, with the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints having lost in the second round of the NFC playoffs. That seemed to indicate that it doesn’t necessarily take dominating defense to reach the Super Bowl in today’s NFL, but it does take some decent defense—especially when it’s played at the right time.
“I think you can go to the playoffs being dominant in one area—running the ball, stopping the run, throwing the ball, whatever it may be,” Billick said. “But to get here, I think you have to have more balance. And I think they [the Patriots and Giants] are more balanced than people give them credit for.”
For much of his career, Patriots Coach Bill Belichick has been known as a defensive guru. Now it’s possible that he will win a Super Bowl title with the league’s 31st-ranked defense.
“It’s hard to play defense in the league now,” former St. Louis Rams running back Marshall Faulk said. “It’s hard to call defenses. . . . Belichick is great, but I’ll tell you what he’s really great at is playing the game within the rules and taking advantage of those rules…. It’s just a different game. Belichick understands: ‘I’m going to give up a lot of yards. I’m not going to be one of the top defenses. But we can stop people from scoring all the time.’ They’ve been a pretty decent scoring defense.”
Whichever team prevails Sunday will become only the eighth club ever to win a Super Bowl without a top-10 defense. It is a sign of the times in the NFL, and the spotlight Sunday is likely to be on Brady, Manning and the offenses.
“That’s how it goes,” Patriots cornerback Devin McCourty said. “We have a great offense and we have had some down points [on defense]. I think everyone will keep giving our offense the love and the respect because they deserve it. As defensive guys, we’ve got to just go out there and play. We have to do our part in this game. We believe in each other. We play for each other and that’s all that matters to us.”
Indeed, no matter what happened during the regular season, one of these defenses will emerge from Sunday’s game as a Super Bowl-winning defense.
“When you get to this game, it’s not about all of that stuff,” Faulk said. “It’s about winning. It’s not about stats. It’s not about what looks good. All you remember is the winner of this game.”

Super Bowl 2012 Predictions

This Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Giants will definitely be something worth watching.
SanDiego.com goes into the huddle and looks at the many facets going into the biggest game of the year.
HISTORY: Lots of it here. Under Bill Belichick’s reign, New England will be appearing in their 5th Super Bowl in 11 years. That is quite a track record in the modern day NFL, where teams and rosters turnover yearly. The Giants are back in the big show for the second time since 2007 with Tom Coughlin, the last appearance being when they beat the Patriots, ending their (18-0) season.
RIVALRY: Call it the "Border War.” It’s the State of New England versus the Big Apple. The Patriots are a religion, stretching from Maine to Massachusetts. The Giants are a historical franchise that dates back to the 1930s, when they played without helmets at places like the Polo Grounds and Yankees Stadium.
COACHES: The brightest and the best. Bill Parcells was a legend in NFL head coaching circles, coaching both the Patriots and Giants, plus the Jets and the Cowboys. Both Belichick and Coughlin come off his coaching tree, both serving time under his tutelage. This week Parcells referred to both as “different people-but the same coaches.” Belichick went to Wesleyan College in Massachusetts. Coughlin began his coaching career at Division III-Rochester Institute of Technology. Look at where they are now. The Patriots coach is all about preparation to the point of paranoia. He is an intellect, thoughtful, but demanding. Nothing that happens on Sunday will be something new to him. Coughlin is fiery, demanding and resolute.
THE SEASON: Both started badly, New England because of an overhaul of their roster on defense, the Giants because of a ton of injuries. Yes, the Patriots are (15-3), but it’s a product of beating just one team with a winning record. No one could believe Belichick could have such a poor defensive team. He got rid of four players in the secondary, and was retooling on the fly. The back half of the regular season, they were giving up just 291 yards per game and showing marked improvement. The Giants had to rebuild their receiver corps, replace two injured starters in the offensive front, fix a banged up secondary, and survive nagging injuries to a number of starters in their defensive front. They lost 4 games in a row at midseason and looked done. They got healthy and hot, then went on a winning streak, and have marched their way to the Super Bowl with enormous road wins. The Giants earned this trip.
QUARTERBACKS: Tom Brady has 16 career wins in postseason, tying the all time record by NFL -legend, Joe Montana. Name the offensive set, and you will likely see it, from shotgun to no huddle to three step drop. Eli Manning has become a complete quarterback, something no one would have guessed with him having the "Aw Shucks" personality. Battered early in his career and prone to throw picks, he’s strung together three superb seasons, and is looking for his second Super Bowl ring. He’s become a scientist and a street fighter.
OFFENSE: New England is the Magna Cum Laude in offenses. They throw like so many NFL teams do, but they do it to tight ends Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and the mighty mite little receiver Wes Welker. Short passes resulting in big yardage is their calling card. Brady is like a scalpel. The Giants have become dangerous down the field. Manning survived 6 sacks and 19 hits and still threw TD passes in their NFC title game against the 49ers. Young stud receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks have been impossible to cover this year. The old-school New York offense, ‘of pound the ball, so I can throw the ball’ has given way to, ‘we're going down the field, can you cover us?’
DEFENSE: It’s what the Giants hang their hat on, and they are out to bury the opposing quarterbacks. They have a fierce pass rush, 53 sacks this season, and have created enormous problems for offensive lineman because they’re so quick off the ball. The fact they get there with just four rushers means quarterbacks under siege have to throw into 7-deep coverage. They may not always get there, but they get such pressure that they disrupt the rhythm of opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have problems. The secondary is shaky, shallow and very young. It remains to be seen if they can make enough big plays to stop the Giants from putting together drives.
SPECIAL TEAMS: This may well be the wildcard in the entire game on Sunday. Brady and his brigade can put together long drives and make plays in big yardage chunks, making the Patriots put together 12 play drives against that New York pass rush, may not be easy. Manning could have a field day, going down the field against a really substandard Pats secondary. The only issue is if the Giants score a lot, it means Brady will get the ball a lot too, setting the stage for a shootout. The Giants likely have to throw, because if you run and have to punt the ball away, Brady can still hit enough big plays to hurt them.
NAMES TO WATCH: It won't be sexy, but the huge challenge will be for the Patriots offensive tackles. Can the veteran Matt Light hold up? What happens to the young right tackles Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder? Brady will throw, but that means exposing him to a relentless pass rush, and the Giants have eight different defensive linemen they can rotate. Keep an eye on the Giants rebuilt offensive line, which let Manning take lots of punishment last week. New England will try to blitz, and what strength they have is in defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Mark Anderson.
WATCH FOR: Brady to go to a hurry up offense, trying to wear out the pass rush. He doesn’t like people around his feet or surgically repaired knees, so he will get the ball out of there, before they get to him. Manning may have lots of time to setup and throw, for it takes time to get his receivers down the field for big plays. But he may have a challenge for the Pats will likely drop a ton of people into complicated overages, forcing him to hold the ball or throw it away. He may take some hits, but I bet he makes some plays.
WHO WINS: Giants 35, Patriots 31. The Giants’ pass rush will disrupt New England’s offense. Eli attacks a sickly secondary. Brady gets yards and scores, but gets hit and turns it over.

Super Bowl 2012: Outcome could hinge on Giants' pass rushers vs. Patriots' blockers

The New York Giants have revved up their pass rush again, just as they did four years ago en route to their stunning Super Bowl upset of the then-unbeaten New England Patriots.

The members of the Patriots’ offensive line have listened all week to questions about their failure to protect New England quarterback Tom Brady from the Giants’ hard-charging defensive linemen in that memorable 2008 game, and about their prospects for improving this year.

Both sides seem to believe the outcome of Sunday’s game at Lucas Oil Stadium could hinge on whether Brady’s blockers are able to keep him on his feet long enough to scan the field for open receivers.

“Our job is to block them,” Patriots guard Logan Mankins said. “And if we do that, we have a good chance to win. We know it’s going to be tough to block them so we need to have our best game out there.”

Few defenses chase opposing quarterbacks as relentlessly as the Giants. Their 2007-08 title was attributable in large part to the ferocity of their pass rush. They led the league with 53 regular season sacks, and they took down Brady five more times in the Super Bowl.

The current Giants tied for third in the league during the regular season with 48 sacks. The Giants added nine sacks in three games during the NFC playoffs. Now their primary pass rushers — Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck — are set to renew their pursuit of Brady.

“We’ve just got to get to him,” Pierre-Paul said. “And going into this game, we know what’s at stake and we’ve got to get there fast enough.”

The participants in this matchup have changed a bit since the teams’ last Super Bowl meeting. Mankins and left tackle Matt Light started that Super Bowl for the Patriots, but the other three starters Sunday will be new. Tuck and Umenyiora played in that Super Bowl for the Giants, but defensive end Michael Strahan has since retired and been replaced by Pierre-Paul.

“It seems like whoever they put in there can get after the passer,” Brady said this week. “Any time you can limit the quarterback, from the time it takes to make a read to make a throw, it’s much more challenging. It comes down to quick decision-making. I put a lot of trust in my offensive line. It’s a great group of players who have really played together for a while.”

Brady said the burden falls on him as well. “I think as a quarterback you understand that you can’t sit there and hold the ball all day,” he said.

The Patriots allowed 32 sacks during the regular season, tying them for the league’s ninth-lowest total. Brady was sacked only once in two AFC playoff games.

Veteran right guard Brian Waters, a Pro Bowl fixture with the Kansas City Chiefs, was signed before the season. Rookie Nate Solder, a first-round draft choice in April out of Colorado, became a starter by necessity with right tackle Sebastian Vollmer plagued by injuries. Vollmer hasn’t played since late November but has practiced this week and might play Sunday.

“The offensive line’s been great all year,” Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis said. “We’ve had different tackles in there. Guards, centers — all those guys work well together and they’re a tight-knit bunch. I think that’s what kind of makes them who they are. They care about each other and they work well together.”

New York Giants team report: Manning sharp as ever

In the second practice of the week leading up to Super Bowl XLVI, Eli Manning completed 10-of-11 passes in the second two-minute drill of the day and, according to the official NFC pool report, looked especially sharp.
Certainly Manning has faces greater obstacles than his own starting defense in a practice situation, but there is a strong feeling that he is at the top of his game. Of course, Manning put an indelible stamp on his career by leading the Giants to an upset of the Patriots four years ago in Super Bowl XLII, earning MVP honors for directing the game-winning touchdown drive.

In the midst of one of his best-ever seasons, Eli Manning continues to look sharp in practice. (AP Photo)

Since then, Manning has been a solid quarterback, but he took a step back last season with a career-high 25 interceptions. Manning cut that figure to 16 this season, and he’s probably never going to be a low-interception quarterback given how frequently he throws the ball downfield.
Four years ago, Manning entered the Super Bowl clearly as the second quarterback, but he arrives this time closer to Tom Brady’s level, establishing himself as a true franchise quarterback who elevates those around him. If he adds a second Super Bowl victory—and a second Super Bowl victory against Brady—Manning will not only become the first Giants quarterback to play and win two Super Bowls, but he will vault himself into consideration for Hall of Fame status, not that he is anywhere close to retiring.

Super Bowl 2012: Who Has the Better Defense -- Giants or Patriots?

The old saying goes, "defense wins championships."

So when trying to predict the winner of the year's biggest game, the better defensive team might be the best choice.

Do the Giants or the Patriots have the better defense?

Both of these defenses have been criticized throughout the season, and the game is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The total opened up in Las Vegas at 55.5, the second highest in Super Bowl history.

This isn't a surprise when you look at the stats. New England finished 31st in total defense in the 2011 regular season, while New York came in at 27th in the league.

But those numbers don't tell the whole story.

The Giants numbers are skewed because of a poor stretch in the regular season against the NFL's best offenses. Between Weeks 12 and 14, the Giants allowed a total of 120 points to the Saints, Packers and Cowboys.

Since their matchup against the Jets, the Giants have been one of the league's best defensive units. In those five games, New York is allowing less than two touchdowns per contest.

The much-improved Giants' pass rush has done a solid job of blitzing the quarterback. They finished third in the NFL with 48 sacks, and have been even better in the playoffs.

New York's defensive resurgence can be correlated to the health of some key players. Defensive ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umemyiora missed a combined 11 games in the regular season. The Giants were without middle linebacker Michael Boley for a few games as well.

The Patriots are guilty of allowing a lot of yards, but that hasn't always translated into scores. New England is at the bottom of the league in yards allowed, but they finished No. 15 in points allowed.

New England's biggest weakness is the pass defense. While the Giants' has improved recently, the Patriots have struggled. The Patriots gave up a league-worst 297 yards per game this season. The short-handed Patriots have had to use wide receiver Julian Edelman at cornerback.

In order to overcome these glaring holes, the Patriots have had to force a lot of turnovers. New England is first in the AFC with 34 takeaways. Even with a porous secondary, they managed to lead the conference with twenty-three interceptions.

Both teams will try to get most of their points through the air. The Giants and Patriots are in the middle of the pack when it comes to rushing defense, finishing at No. 19 and No. 17, respectively.

While the Giants may appear to have the overall edge, it's difficult to gauge how they both will play after two weeks rest, and which are capable of forcing a fumble or interception.

The Giants and Patriots have two of the best offenses in the NFL. Eli Manning and Tom Brady are both in position to have good games. It may not matter which quarterback finishes with more passing yards, or which running games has rushing yards.

Super Bowl 2012 Commercials: Volkswagen Makes A Really Weird Ad

Super Bowl XLVI is just a few days away and already advertisers have begun releasing their new Super Bowl commercials online. Putting aside how strange it is for companies to "pre-release" commercials, or release "teasers" for the commercials, or even that there are "event" commercials in the first place, let's take a look at one of the new ads that will "officially premiere" during the game on Sunday.
Volkswagen tickled many a viewer's fancy during last year's Super Bowl when they debuted a Passat commercial featuring the "Star Wars Kid," who tries to use his or her Force powers...with adorable results. Recently, VW put out a commercial to "tease" their Super Bowl commercial, which features a chorus of dogs barking the Imperial March, and a whippet dressed as an AT-AT Walker. As cute/awesome as that is, it doesn't really seem to have anything to do with their product, which is, you know, typically the point of advertising.
But here's what it led up to: their 2012 Super Bowl commercial for the Volkswagen Beetle, entitled "The Dog Strikes Back."

I have ... problems with this commercial. First off, there's the super-depressing aspect of having a morbidly obese dog, which would indicate terrible owners or borderline animal abuse more than anything else. Instead, you have a dog being concerned about its self-image, which is pretty wrong on a lot of levels. Is it not enough that companies never stop the fat-shaming of human beings? Must they move on to making the animals feel bad now?
But let's not even worry about that part. The end of the commercial moves on to the Mos Eisley cantina and a wretched hive of villainy discussing the dog commercial. Then Darth Vader shows up. No one is quite sure why this is happening. The dog thing and the Star Wars thing are in no way related. Could they really not think of another way to work Darth Vader into a new commercial? He's Darth Vader.
Also, is Volkswagen and Star Wars a new thing now? Are they going to be joined at the hip in Super Bowl commercials for the next decade? Are VW dealership lobbies going to features guys in Chewbacca suits? ... Okay, that last thing would be awesome. If that's where we're headed, carry on, Volkswagen.