Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl 2012 Predictions

This Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Giants will definitely be something worth watching.
SanDiego.com goes into the huddle and looks at the many facets going into the biggest game of the year.
HISTORY: Lots of it here. Under Bill Belichick’s reign, New England will be appearing in their 5th Super Bowl in 11 years. That is quite a track record in the modern day NFL, where teams and rosters turnover yearly. The Giants are back in the big show for the second time since 2007 with Tom Coughlin, the last appearance being when they beat the Patriots, ending their (18-0) season.
RIVALRY: Call it the "Border War.” It’s the State of New England versus the Big Apple. The Patriots are a religion, stretching from Maine to Massachusetts. The Giants are a historical franchise that dates back to the 1930s, when they played without helmets at places like the Polo Grounds and Yankees Stadium.
COACHES: The brightest and the best. Bill Parcells was a legend in NFL head coaching circles, coaching both the Patriots and Giants, plus the Jets and the Cowboys. Both Belichick and Coughlin come off his coaching tree, both serving time under his tutelage. This week Parcells referred to both as “different people-but the same coaches.” Belichick went to Wesleyan College in Massachusetts. Coughlin began his coaching career at Division III-Rochester Institute of Technology. Look at where they are now. The Patriots coach is all about preparation to the point of paranoia. He is an intellect, thoughtful, but demanding. Nothing that happens on Sunday will be something new to him. Coughlin is fiery, demanding and resolute.
THE SEASON: Both started badly, New England because of an overhaul of their roster on defense, the Giants because of a ton of injuries. Yes, the Patriots are (15-3), but it’s a product of beating just one team with a winning record. No one could believe Belichick could have such a poor defensive team. He got rid of four players in the secondary, and was retooling on the fly. The back half of the regular season, they were giving up just 291 yards per game and showing marked improvement. The Giants had to rebuild their receiver corps, replace two injured starters in the offensive front, fix a banged up secondary, and survive nagging injuries to a number of starters in their defensive front. They lost 4 games in a row at midseason and looked done. They got healthy and hot, then went on a winning streak, and have marched their way to the Super Bowl with enormous road wins. The Giants earned this trip.
QUARTERBACKS: Tom Brady has 16 career wins in postseason, tying the all time record by NFL -legend, Joe Montana. Name the offensive set, and you will likely see it, from shotgun to no huddle to three step drop. Eli Manning has become a complete quarterback, something no one would have guessed with him having the "Aw Shucks" personality. Battered early in his career and prone to throw picks, he’s strung together three superb seasons, and is looking for his second Super Bowl ring. He’s become a scientist and a street fighter.
OFFENSE: New England is the Magna Cum Laude in offenses. They throw like so many NFL teams do, but they do it to tight ends Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and the mighty mite little receiver Wes Welker. Short passes resulting in big yardage is their calling card. Brady is like a scalpel. The Giants have become dangerous down the field. Manning survived 6 sacks and 19 hits and still threw TD passes in their NFC title game against the 49ers. Young stud receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks have been impossible to cover this year. The old-school New York offense, ‘of pound the ball, so I can throw the ball’ has given way to, ‘we're going down the field, can you cover us?’
DEFENSE: It’s what the Giants hang their hat on, and they are out to bury the opposing quarterbacks. They have a fierce pass rush, 53 sacks this season, and have created enormous problems for offensive lineman because they’re so quick off the ball. The fact they get there with just four rushers means quarterbacks under siege have to throw into 7-deep coverage. They may not always get there, but they get such pressure that they disrupt the rhythm of opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have problems. The secondary is shaky, shallow and very young. It remains to be seen if they can make enough big plays to stop the Giants from putting together drives.
SPECIAL TEAMS: This may well be the wildcard in the entire game on Sunday. Brady and his brigade can put together long drives and make plays in big yardage chunks, making the Patriots put together 12 play drives against that New York pass rush, may not be easy. Manning could have a field day, going down the field against a really substandard Pats secondary. The only issue is if the Giants score a lot, it means Brady will get the ball a lot too, setting the stage for a shootout. The Giants likely have to throw, because if you run and have to punt the ball away, Brady can still hit enough big plays to hurt them.
NAMES TO WATCH: It won't be sexy, but the huge challenge will be for the Patriots offensive tackles. Can the veteran Matt Light hold up? What happens to the young right tackles Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder? Brady will throw, but that means exposing him to a relentless pass rush, and the Giants have eight different defensive linemen they can rotate. Keep an eye on the Giants rebuilt offensive line, which let Manning take lots of punishment last week. New England will try to blitz, and what strength they have is in defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Mark Anderson.
WATCH FOR: Brady to go to a hurry up offense, trying to wear out the pass rush. He doesn’t like people around his feet or surgically repaired knees, so he will get the ball out of there, before they get to him. Manning may have lots of time to setup and throw, for it takes time to get his receivers down the field for big plays. But he may have a challenge for the Pats will likely drop a ton of people into complicated overages, forcing him to hold the ball or throw it away. He may take some hits, but I bet he makes some plays.
WHO WINS: Giants 35, Patriots 31. The Giants’ pass rush will disrupt New England’s offense. Eli attacks a sickly secondary. Brady gets yards and scores, but gets hit and turns it over.

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